MLB: World Series Preview

With both Championship Series behind us, there remains only one step left on the quest to crown a 2011 baseball champion: the World Series. I went 1-for-2 in my predictions, and really only missed the NLCS prediction because the dang Milwaukee Brewers didn't realize they were supposed to force a 7th game. So really, not my fault - I'll call it a win. But now, thanks to the little team that could and an unrelenting rightfielder, the premiere teams in baseball are set to square away in a 7-game series.

The St. Louis Cardinals have ridden the wave of momentum, all the way from qualifying as the NL's Wild Card team on the final day of the regular season, through knocking off the World Series favorite Philadelphia Phillies, then besting their NL Central rivals, the Milwaukee Brewers, and now set to take on the Texas Rangers.

Those Rangers are an offensive juggernaut that has kind of gotten an easier ride to the Series: after first getting hit in the mouth by the AL Wild Card-winning Tampa Bay Rays in Game 1 of the ALDS, they cameback to win 3 straight against a team that really seemed eager to get themselves out. After that series, they took on a top-heavy Detroit Tigers team who limped into the ALCS with injuries to some major offensive weapons and then were exposed by a pretty dominant Rangers bullpen. That, and rightfielder Nelson Cruz decided that he wanted to make history, hitting 6 home runs in 6 games and driving in 13 runs.

My thoughts going into the World Series are as follows: the Cardinals have made it this far without having very good production from their starting pitching or reliable weapons on offense. The key for them to come away with the 2011 World Series trophy lies in the hands of ace pitcher Chris Carpenter, stud first baseman Albert Pujols, and NLCS MVP and overall surprise third baseman David Freese. For the Texas Rangers, their lineup has lived up to every expectation: speed and high average at the top of the lineup with Ian Kinsler and Elvis Andrus, and then an assortment of power hitters scrambled between Mike Napoli, Josh Hamilton, and playoffs-breakout Adrian Beltre. Their starting pitching hasn't been amazing (kind of a major plotline for all teams throughout this year's playoffs), but the bullpen has been great between Mike Adams, Alexi Ogando, and closer Neftali Feliz. The key for this team will continue to be the offense, which can pull the team to a win even if the pitching may not show up in a big way. However, big performances by #1 starter CJ Wilson or some of the other arms in the rotation will do a lot in bringing the city of Dallas its second major sports championship of the year, and the first World Series championship to the Texas Rangers organization.

My Prediction: Party in Dallas! Rangers in 6.

Super Megatron

Calvin Johnson has been out of his mind as a wide receiver for the 5-0 Detroit Lions this year. Nicknamed "Megatron" due to his machine-like performance and consistency, Johnson has been a major reason the Lions are heading into week 6 as one of only two undefeated teams in the NFL. Megatron has been on a record-setting pace to start the year: through 5 games, he has 9 touchdown passes, easily on pace to break Randy Moss's 2007 record of 23 TD grabs. The thought occured to me to statistically compare Johnson's stellar 2011 start to some of the all-time great receiving seasons, as well as comparing his year to that of his peers in the game today.

Here are the statistical numbers of Jerry Rice's 5 best scoring years, Randy Moss's 4 best, Cris Carter's and Terrell Owens' best, as well as some dominant Larry Fitzgerald seasons and Wes Welker's scorching start to this season. (YAC = yards after catch, and YAC wasn't computed as a stat until 1994)

Player	Rec/Game	Yds/gm	TD/gm	YAC/gm
86 Rice	5.375	98.125	0.9375
87 Rice	5.416666667	89.83333333	1.833333333
89 Rice	5.125	92.6875	1.0625
91 Rice	5	75.375	0.875
93 Rice	6.125	93.9375	0.9375
95 Carter	7.625	85.6875	1.0625	27.45
98 Moss	4.3125	82.0625	1.0625	15.5625
00 Moss	4.8125	89.8125	0.9375	18.9375
01 Owens	5.8125	88.25	1	32.55
03 Moss	6.9375	102	1.0625	27.4375
07 Moss	6.125	93.3125	1.4375	18.3125
08 Fitzgerald	6	89.4375	0.75	28.8
09 Fitzgerald	6.0625	68.25	0.8125	18.1875
11 Megatron	5.8	90.2	1.8	16.6
11 Welker	9	148	1	57.6

Now what does this all mean? First, Wes Welker is #1 in every per-game stat shown above, and rightfully so. He's had an amazing year-to-date, and this could be a record-setting year for him as well. However, one of his stats points to a potential setback in Welker's season of greatness: his YAC/game is a whopping 57.6. This leads me to believe that Welker has been relatively lucky in breaking tackles and finding seams downfield after catching the ball, and I would expect that number to drop significantly toward the rest of the pack as the season progresses. So let's all realize that Wes Welker is having a great year, and then move on. Because this blogpost isn't about him.

Now, Megatron has only played in 5 of the Lions' 16 scheduled games this season, so the record books are far from his. But what I'm looking for is: how repeatable are these numbers for the rest of the season? Compared to the rest of the pack (of Hall of Fame NFL receivers...he's in good company), Johnson is right in the middle of the group in terms of receptions and yards per game. As for receiving touchdowns, Calvin trails only 1987 Jerry Rice in TDs/game, and in terms of YAC/game, Johnson is second-to-last.

My take on that set of numbers: Johnson's receptions and yards are consistent with other great receiving years, so they seem to be repeatable for the duration of the season. It would be amazing and unlikely for Megatron to continue hauling in TDs at the rate he is currently at, but there is room for improvement in the disparity of YAC Johnson is currently gaining per game. In addition to this, Detroit's lack of a punishing goal-line running back to finish off drives means that quarterback Matthew Stafford will be looking to Megatron more and more as the season progresses.

Allow me this one last giddy outpouring over these statistics: in 1987, Jerry Rice caught 22 touchdown passes and had 1078 receiving yards...in 12 games played. That season, he had only 65 receptions, which means that ONE out of every THREE passes he caught from Joe Montana that year went for a score. Many people have said this before, but analysis like this proves what the Naked-Eye Test has hypothesized: Jerry Rice is the greatest wide receiver of all time, and in my estimation the greatest football player who ever lived.

Seeing Johnson replicate what Rice did for most of his career, aka own opposing defensive backs, is truly something special. As a Detroit bandwagon jumper and a Calvin Johnson fantasy owner, I am a tiny bit biased in rooting for Megatron to continue his machine-like domination of opponents through the rest of this season. But hey, as a football fan, it's just a lot of fun to see history being made.

Sing-Off Update Round 2, Group 2

On NBC's "The Sing-Off," tonight showed our second look at the second half of a star-studded bracket to see who will be crowned as Season 3's best a cappella group. The opening number really reintroduced me to all of these great leads, and aside from a few specific singers, that's what this side of the bracket has to offer: great lead vocalists. Here's the breakdown of how the night went:

Deltones - Their pop song was "The Edge of Glory" by Lady Gaga, and I really like their musical balance, but I think that for all the studliness they have at the bottom with their strong basses, they're missing a top-end girl voice. But I think that would be just gravy, and their lead did a good enough job to highlight a good ensemble sound. The oldies song they picked was a Supremes song, and it really gave this huge group a chance to show off the female depth on the vocal bench. However, it felt like all the ladies were layered on top of each other too much. Their lead didn't quite knock this one out of the park for me, and hearing the judges skirt around their performance was kind of a giveaway that this wasn't a very good song.

Pentatonix - Last week's surprising group comes out with a Ke$ha bit, and from the first note it's evident that their beatbox is the best in the competition, hands down. The arrangement is definitely different, and while I'm not sure it totally worked, it was commendable for its bravery at the very least. There just wasn't enough of their amazing male lead for my taste. For the '60s song, they definitely sit behind the 8-ball because these guys are so very modern in their style. With that said, their take on Janis Joplin was so soulful and just nice to listen to. I expected their pop song to carry them, and hearing their Joplin cover reinforced that.

The Collective - The pop song they picked is a favorite of mine, "Rocketeer," and I'm really glad they went with the other girl voice since I just really don't love the female lead from last week. While it was a good performance, it seemed a little bit like a group of people singing around a campfire. Their second song was a high-energy group dance song, and it gave each of these solo artists a chance to sing their lungs off. Really, just the last 45-seconds of the song were stellar, but it was fairly good all around.

North Shore - The old-school doo-woppers are really out of their element singing a pop song, and taking on "The Lazy Song" by Bruno Mars really seemed weird. However, each member of this group does exactly what they're required, and they may have the best cohesive chemistry of all the groups. Also, the lead's personality really has a chance to come out when he sings - it's really refreshing. They took on The Righteous Brothers "Unchained Melody" with their oldies song, and it was...amazing. Really just had nothing wrong with it, the lead vocalist was incredible and his range was completely on display. That song was right in their wheelhouse, so they needed to kill it. Thankfully, they did.

Dartmouth Aires - I love these guys! So much fun, and their take on Neon Trees' "Animal" was really great and energetic. They lost it a little bit right at the end, but showing the versatility to have another guy step into the lead spot and absolutely kill it was really a strong statement. Also, their fashion is great - for what that's worth. Their second song was "Pinball Wizard" by The Who, and holy crap it was a great change of pace from hearing Sonos immediately before. They just had such a great combination of layered vocals between their lows and highs, and they went back to the original lead vocalist, so it was incredible. I loved it, and I love these guys. They're in my elite of both sides of the bracket.

Sonos - My least favorite group from last week, they took on Coldplay's "Viva La Vida" and I just didn't really like it. Very boring, and between having one guy singing lead and having the other beat box...that just leaves three girls to split up the bass duties. And it was very lacking. The oldies song that this urban group tried to take on was The Jackson 5's "I Want You Back," and they definitely...made it their own? As always, the three female vocalists are in the alto/soprano range, and their non-beatboxing male isn't a bass. So there really is never a foundation to build on. It was pretty awful to see the judges skewer them and just see them squirm up there. Them getting eliminated really wasn't a hard decision, and I'm tired of hearing about how hard it is to sing without effects pedals.

MLB: Championship Series Preview

One round down, and two to go! The MLB playoffs are proving once again that baseball is fun, although haters may still cling to the suggestion that we do away with the regular season altogether. From my previous posts, I went 3-1 on predicting winners of a series, and then perfectly picked the Tigers winning their series with the Yankees in 5 games. Here are my thoughts for the upcoming championship series.

Matchup: Detroit Tigers (95-67) vs. Texas Rangers (96-66)

Breakdown: The Tigers are fresh off of a fairy tale series win over the Yankees, and they are definitely flying high. Justin Verlander proved to be very good in the series, and the combination of Max Scherzer/Doug Fister provided the extra boost to pull the Tigers over the top. Most of the offense came from a surprising source: midseason pickup Delmon Young, as he had a great power stroke going to right field, hitting two such home runs at Yankee Stadium. The Tigers' power hitters - Young, AL MVP candidate Miguel Cabrera, and Victor Martinez - will need to keep that opposite field power going at the Ballpark in Arlington if they hope to keep with their winning ways. However, they will have to take down the undoubted remaining favorites in the Texas Rangers. The Rangers played the role of the midnight clock perfectly in the division series - turning the World Series hopes of the Cinderella story Tampa Bay Rays into pumpkin pie in three games after getting hit in the mouth by rookie pitcher Matt Moore in Game One. Now, the rested Rangers only need to continue their recent formula for success and they can reach their second consecutive World Series. The Rangers throw out a slew of young strikeout pitchers, and their lineup is filled with power hitters who work opposing pitchers for very tough at-bats consistently. The Rangers would have to hit some pretty serious speed bumps to be ousted from their apparent collision course with the World Series.

Key Players: Again for the Tigers, the key to this series lies in the hands of the secondary starters. Verlander has shown his Cy Young chops off in these playoffs already and will be called upon at every possible chance, but Doug Fister and Max Scherzer will need to have carbon-copies of their division series performances to provide the Tigers with more pitching stability. For the Rangers, I think the studly hitting by Adrian Beltre needs to continue. While the Hall of Fame buzz may be a bit premature, his 3-homer day really shows how amazing he can be when he's locked in. Beltre, along with Josh Hamilton, Michael Young, and Nelson Cruz, needs to bring the wood again when being pitted against some dirty strikeout Tigers pitchers.

My Pick: Rangers in 6

Matchup: St. Louis Cardinals (90-72) vs. Milwaukee Brewers (96-66)

Breakdown: The glass slipper is still firmly on the sole of the St. Louis Cardinals, as their Cinderella wild card run is alive and kicking into the NLCS. However, the prayers of St. Louisans will be upon Albert Pujols and...not much else. And Pujols has been getting some "empty calories" hits, as he hasn't really been performing when it really matters. However, between him, Yadier Molina, and a hopefully-resurgent effort from Matt Holliday, there is definitely the potential to break out for some big games. The Brewers, on the other hand, played well, and more importantly, hit well in their division series win against the Arizona Diamondbacks. Ryan Braun was amazing for Milwaukee, and Prince Fielder didn't play that bad himself. Yovani Gallardo pitched well in both Game One and Five, and the Brewers will need him to repeat that in this series. This NL Central matchup in the NLCS is very interesting, especially considering the bad blood shown between the two teams throughout the regular season. The main matchup to watch: hothead Nyjer "T-Plush" Morgan against Chris Carpenter. T-Plush has already spoken out against Carpenter via Twitter, and it will be interesting to see if Carpenter continues to get his goat in this series.

Key Players: The Cardinals need to hit. Plain and simple. The keys in this series will be the Cardinals 3-4-5 hitters: Albert Pujols, Lance Berkman, and Matt Holliday. If they can step up and get some clutch hits, then they can definitely hang with the Brewers. The Brewers' missing component has been starting pitching. Neither Zack Greinke nor Shawn Marcum faired too well in their only starts of the division series, but they will need to show up in a big way to give some defensive support to back the Brewers potent lineup. Also, a dark horse in this series could be both the Brewers' and Cardinals' sub-par defense - they were both among the bottom 10 in the majors for team errors in the regular season.

My Pick: Brewers in 7

Baseball Playoffs - NLDS Preview

After taking a look at the American League side of things, here's my thoughts on the National League Division Series:

Matchup: St. Louis Cardinals (90-72) vs. Philadelphia Phillies (102-60)

Breakdown: The Cardinals are one of the hottest teams in baseball right now after their amazing September run to win the NL wild card. The presence of Albert Pujols, Matt Holliday, and a resurgent Lance Berkman in the middle of the lineup is always a threat, and Chris Carpeneter is as reliable of a starter as any team has. However, they will have to take down Goliath in the Phillies. Philadelphia has a very balanced offense, featuring Jimmy Rollins, Shane Victorino, Chase Utley, and Ryan Howard - I mean the weapons are there. And with any semblance of an offense, the murderer's row of pitchers Roy Halladay/Cliff Lee/Cole Hamels/Roy Oswalt will take over and completely dominate.

Key Players: For the Cardinals, they need another starter to step up and match the strong starting pitching of Philly. Therefore, between Kyle Lohse, Jaime Garcia, or Edwin Jackson, someone needs to step in and pitch the game of their life for the Cardinals to really have a chance in this series. On the Phillies side of this, the only question mark really comes in when the stud starters leave the game, so the key players are going to be Brad Lidge, Antonio Bastardo, and Ryan Madson. It will be up to them to finish out these games, unless of course the starters go all 9 innings.

My Pick: Phillies in 3

Matchup: Arizona Diamondbacks (94-68) vs. Milwaukee Brewers (96-66)

Breakdown: After emerging victorious from the NL West, the Diamondbacks are pit against a pretty solid team in the Brewers. Arizona is pretty top-heavy: their ace, Ian Kennedy, is a Cy Young contender, and their stud hitter Justin Upton has been in the MVP race all season. However, the rest of the roster has been nothing if not prone to hot streaks, and a streaky team can definitely fall on its face in the playoffs. Milwaukee has a very balanced team, on the other hand: they can hit for power, they have team speed, and their starting pitching can carry them. Ryan Braun, Prince Fielder, and Rickie Weeks provide the fun with home runs, and Yovani Gallardo and Shawn Marcum team with my unashamed man-crush Zack Greinke as a huge reason why the Brewers finished as a top 5 team in strikeouts.

Key Players: The key to Arizona's success will lie in the hands of the secondary guys. The D-Backs have a group of surprising players this year who have the potential to join Upton in carrying this team: Chris Young, Ryan Roberts, Miguel Montero, Paul Goldschmidt, and Aaron Hill. If any combination of these players can show up in this series, they have a great shot at matching the Brewers' firepower. The critical cog in the Brewers machine is centerfielder and lead-off man Nyjer Morgan. If "T-Plush" can get on base, steal some bases, and just be a nuisance to the Diamondbacks' pitchers, that could totally open up the floodgates for Braun, Fielder, and the rest of the Brewers' power bats to take over this series.

My Pick: Brewers in 4