Down Goes Selena 2.0!

Okay, this is another American Idol breakdown, but I just think that the scenarios have changed slightly. So look at this as a progress report.

Here are my power rankings, and these are based on where I think they should go realistically (with only slight bias).

1 - James Durbin

2 - Jacob Lusk

3 - Casey Abrams

4 - Pia Toscano

5 - Stefano Langone

6 - Haley Reinhart

7 - Lauren Alaina

8 - Paul McDonald

9 - Scottie McCreery

10 - Thia Megia

11 - Naima Edadapo

First, the judges on the show have started to just fill roles in their post-performance critiques. Randy, as he always has, takes a very musical, note-by-note approach. That's fine, except that what he sometimes thinks are "hot", I don't agree with. Jennifer Lopez has transitioned nicely into the Paula Abdul vacancy, and she's an even bigger star than Abdul was so she has even more influence on these guys. This may sound crazy, but after the audition episodes, I thought that Steven Tyler was going to triumphantly take over the Simon Cowell role of tough-love critic. Then, he decided to take his cues from...Ellen Degeneres? Now he is just pumping these singers so full of inspiration that I'm afraid of an explosion of Care Bear lovey-dovey rainbows every time he opens his mouth.

Do I have a solution? Sure, I'm glad you asked! Randy, keep doing what you're doing - you and I may differ, but your opinion has been proven and it's respected. J.Lo, right on. You know where these people could possibly be headed, and you have good advice. Steven Tyler, please please please be the singer of good music that you are, and give them good advice and point out musical aspects of the songs. Also, keep cursing on camera - it's so funny to play "Is that a cable provider audio error or just Steven being Steven?"

Now to the competition. With Karen (aka Selena/J-Lo 2.0) voted off, there are now two more contestants who I think have no business being in the competition this late - namely Thia and Naima. Both are great singers, but they just don't have the chops to hang with the rest. The next two weeks, in a perfect world, would have the two of them leaving in no particular order.

A couple singers have been surprising to me - or rather, America's response has been surprising to some fairly unique voices. Where Casey seems to be a favorite in the competition, and Paul has been accepted for all of his dance moves and odd voice, I think that Haley has been sending in some absolute gems for a few weeks and has been getting killed for it. She's got that growl in her voice, which I think she uses tastefully, and isn't afraid to move around while she dances which is good. Granted, I know that it sounds differently when you're in the theater with them, so J.Lo saying that it looks awkward may have some merit to it. But I really think she's got a great voice, and where Randy says "what do you want to be? who are you as an artist?" I could construe as saying that she's super-versatile. Think about it, she sang Alicia Keys and then Lee Ann Rimes - in back-to-back weeks. That's why she's so high on my power rankings.

Lauren is legit, she had a bad week and was sick last week so she's not in the top 5 because of that and, honestly, that everyone in the top 5 might be a little better than her. But she could be a Carrie Underwood-type.

I'm pretty sure Scottie has already gotten calls from country producers offering him a job, and you know what? Keep it up bro! He knows what he can do, and he stinkin' does it. Right on.

My roommate told me this after hearing the last episode, and I agree with him. He said that he hopes Paul gets voted off soon, because if he does the fear is that he'll be shoehorned into a major record label-type of act. And I honestly think that he could be great if left to do his own thing without having to appease the American Idol producers.

Pia and Stefano are the two dark horses, who were kind of unheralded but now have proven to be amazing if given the right song. Pia has something about her where she can take on the divas and do them justice. Also, she has such as strong, controlled voice that she can go even higher after holding out a sustained note in the upper register. Listen for it next time, it's pretty remarkable. If Stefano could use last week as a blueprint, I see him becoming a Ne-Yo/Bruno Mars type. And I really like both of those guys.

James, Jacob, and Casey are still my favorites to win it all, and it's just a matter of who gets sick as to who will win. Jacob, though, needs to ease up a little. I like that he goes all the way up to 6th gear on the intensity, but I like to hear the soft and beautiful voice like he did on the last line of his song last week.

And Casey, do you now see why Nirvana has never been done? Yeah. I like the risk, but horrible execution. I won't say anything bad about James, you can't make me.

American Idol, are you serious?

I mean for real! After my boy, Taylor Hicks, won season 5 of American Idol, I swore off the show because I had reached the pinnacle - I had picked a guy in his first audition to win the whole thing. Also attributing to my American Idol sabbatical was the increase in gimmicks and tricks that the show kept throwing out there. It was honestly annoying, and if you don't agree then you must be the one person in the world who thinks that Ryan Seacrest is SO funny, and you probably actually like watching non-Super Bowl commercials. Be honest.

However, I started watching this season. What got me back into it? Honestly, I wanted to see Jennifer Lopez, Randy Jackson, and Steven Tyler ruin the show. I knew that Randy couldn't handle the show by himself, J-Lo would be too....I don't know, harsh? and that Steven Tyler would probably fill his Coca-Cola sponsored cup with LSD and trip out on national TV. So I started watching. And you know what? I like it! I was right, Randy can't carry the load, but he doesn't need too - this group is sharing the load, like the '00 Ravens, or the '04 Pistons, or the '10 San Francisco Giants. They're sharing the ball, and it's really working.

As a side note, I'm pretty sure that Steven Tyler has in his contract somewhere that he can do whatever he wants. And I'm sure that Ryan Seacrest - ever the drama queen - loves it, and caters to it. Seriously, how long until he gets to bring a pet into auditions one year? Or he makes out with a hot girl (or guy? ew jordan...stop) after some face-melting solo.

So here's what I think of the current top 10 (+3). Because it's not the top 13 according to TV Guide...thanks a lot, show riggers. The girls are clearly shallower in depth, so I'll start with them. Lauren Alaina and Hailey Reinhart could win the whole thing, but each would have to surprise me. Hailey KILLED it this week with Alicia Keys' "Fallin'", and Lauren actually sang a song that I didn't like. But like a consummate professional, she made a 4 sound like an 8, and a song choice that should have made her nervous in any other year sent her sailing through to the next round. Thia Megia could be something special, but has yet to prove to me that she's good enough to make into the Hailey-Lauren echelon. Naima is really good, but won't last - and Ashthon is solid, but doesn't do anything special for me...and you need that to separate yourself. Pia sang The Pretenders' "I'll Stand By You" so well this week, and me and my roommate were blown away by it - but it's really the first time I've looked at her twice, so it's too soon to place her. I really like Karen Rodriguez, and I'd say her consistency puts her in a class of her own directly below the Hailey-Lauren line. The girls, however, are weak compared to the guys, and I still think that only Lauren or maybe Hailey can win it all.

As for the guys, unfortunately, it's a two-man race. Stefano is really good, he's got such a powerfully high voice for only being like 5'5'', but his time on the show is dwindling because he doesn't have the depth of range of his peers.

Can I just say that Tim Halperin is good enough to make it ANY other year?! So good, and I really think that a bad song choice led him to an early exit. Plus, he's friends with a guy I knew from high school, so it was cool to see Aaron Mullenix on my TV for the past few weeks.

Scotty, the low-singing baseball pitcher, is Mr. Country this year. He knows his strike zone, and isn't willing to chase. He's like Tony Gwynn, he won't hit many home runs, but every time out you expect him to make solid contact. And you know what? I think it could get him to go really far this season.

I love Paul McDonald, and his quirky voice and fashion sense. First of all, props for going all-black, and the coat tails were very cool. He knows what he can do, and with his raspy voice he can take any song and make it his own without trying too hard. However, I don't think the American public will appreciate him as much as he should be, so I think he's on his last legs here. Shame.

Casey Abrams, if anyone, could catch the two frontrunners. However, the bearded eccentric will have to set the WORLD on fire if he plans on catching them...kind of like he did this week. His personality really shows when he sings, and it's very endearing. He's a mainstay in the show for sure, and he is must-see TV.

Now Jacob Lusk and James Durbin are 1-2 in some order, depending on the day. For me, I think that this week Jacob's Vandross song "A House Is Not A Home" barely edges out James's "You Got Another Thing Coming". Lusk was emotional, and Durbin was playful and energetic, and it's really like a difference between 9.9 and a 9.8 but still. One thing that I think will be interesting to watch will be to see how well Jacob can do the faster songs. He's got the heart-wrenchers down to an art, but can he awkwardly bounce around the stage? Even if he can't, he's still miles in front of 3rd place. And let it be known that Durbin can do almost no wrong in my eyes. So there.

Final prediction: 1st - Lusk, 2nd - Durbin